Today’s Big Story
On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy invoked memories of Pearl Harbor and the September 11 terror attacks in an impassioned live-video plea to Congress to send more help for Ukraine’s fight against Russia. American lawmakers stood and cheered and President Joe Biden later announced that the U.S. will be sending more anti-aircraft, anti-armor weapons and drones through an additional $800 million in military aid.
📯 What’s Going On?
The war has entered its 4th week. Russia is ramping up attacks on civilian citizens in what is being described by several officials as “lethal attacks” to inflict “maximum losses.”
Wearing his trademark army green T-shirt, Zelenskyy began his remarks to “Americans, friends” by invoking the destruction the U.S. suffered in 1941 when Japan bombed the naval base at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii, and the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon by militants who hijacked passenger airplanes to crash into the symbols of Western democracy and economics.
But his key demand was quite straightforward: a no-fly zone.
🔍 What Does this Mean?
Many on the left support the introduction of a limited no-fly zone over Ukraine to close Ukrainian airspace to Russian fighters near NATO’s eastern borders and try to establish a humanitarian corridor.
Many on the right argue that the US should send Ukraine additional militaru aid but refrain from establishing a no-fly zone and are critical of President Biden for delayed action on supplying air-defense weapons systems to Ukraine.
"The establishment of such a no-fly zone over six to eight western oblasts of Ukraine would not just provide much needed military support to the Ukrainian forces on the ground; it will soon be imperative from a humanitarian and logistical point of view.If the West stands idly by while Putin’s air force indiscriminately shoots up refugee convoys, aid organizations and Ukrainian troops within sight of NATO borders, it would be a moral disaster from which the “free West” would hardly ever recover.nEven if one sets aside moral considerations, a no-fly zone in western Ukraine would help prevent the war from spreading uncontrollably into NATO territory by giving the aggressor a clear “so far and no further!” message — at least in terms of air battle.” - Politico
"More than two dozen foreign policy experts have signed a letter to the Biden administration calling for a so-called limited no-fly zone over Ukraine… I mean, of course, the risk - that they [Russia] wouldn't abide by it. And, of course, there is a risk to NATO pilots if they go and enforce it. The idea here is that there would be less of a likelihood that they would challenge it because they have agreed to the corridor itself, and they would have to agree to the no-fly zone as well. But I have to agree that it is difficult because, again, the Russians are not to be trusted. But if we want to do something to try to save lives, it might be worth the cost. And I don't believe that Vladimir Putin at this point in time wants a war with NATO, so that's another consideration" - NPR
"We must be clear-eyed about where our interests align with — but also diverge from — Ukraine’s. We climb the escalation ladder at our peril…The most we can realistically do is give David more slingshots… The new package [Biden] announced includes 800 antiaircraft weapons, 9,000 anti-armor weapons, 7,000 small arms, 20 million rounds of ammunition and an unspecified number of drones. That’s not beanbag. But it is not a declaration of war, either.” - Washington Post
“Speaking of other weapons systems, Biden’s only just getting around to sending over weapons systems that can counter Russian air attacks and artillery units. If those weapons systems can be transferred to Ukraine now, they should have been transferred to Ukraine two weeks ago, when it might have saved Ukrainian population centers from Putin’s brutal attacks…And again, why did it take Zelensky begging Congress for action to shake loose the weapons, rather than Biden acting on his own at the beginning of the conflict — or better yet, before it as a deterrent?” - Hot Air
💭 Why Should I Care?
No-fly Still Won’t Fly
No-fly zones sound so passive. It’s as if you lay out on Google Maps an area where no aircraft are allowed. But to enforce it, you need to patrol its perimeter and be willing to shoot down any plane that is coming in to violate that zone. In Ukraine, that would mean the US and its NATO allies send in jets to patrol Ukraine’s skies and be willing to shoot down any Russian planes that enter protected airspace. This gets into direct conflict territory and is why President Biden has said multiple times would be “the path to world war III.”
So, there is, in short, no such thing as a “limited” no-fly zone in Ukraine. Either NATO is using its forces to deny airspace to Russian jets, or it is not. And if the US and its allies engage in such a mission, the logic of the mission inevitably militates toward war with Russia — with all of the risks of nuclear escalation that entails.
Have questions or comments about today’s newsletter?
🙋Ask Away!
And in case you’re interested to learn more…
This 6-minute video from The Vox on how a no-fly zone would change the war in Ukraine
✨ Below the Fold
Happy Holi, friends!
Not to be a Debbie Downer but at this time last year, we were flooded with images of shocking holi revelry, large-scale gatherings and rain-dance parties in several parts of India amid rising COVID-19 cases. We all know how that went down. I can feel myself holding my breath as I read the news today. Worryingly, the pandemic is already showing signs of resurgence in China, Hong Kong, South Korea and many experts are now warning of a fourth wave.
Overall, maybe it’s the world, maybe it’s the weather, but I’m just feeling like lately I’m all over the place because life continues to be everything all at once. But these lines from a poem I read in David Ferry’s translation of Horace’s ode “To Licinius” are helping me hold it together:
Always expect reversals; be hopeful in trouble,
Be worried when things go well. That’s how it is
For the man whose heart is ready for anything.
It’s true that Jupiter brings on the hard winters;
It’s also true that Jupiter takes them away.
If things are bad right now, they won’t always be.
Apollo isn’t always drawing his bow;
There are times when he takes up his lyre and plays,
And awakens the music sleeping upon the strings.
How are you all doing? Are you celebrating Holi with friends? Having a nice home-cooked meal with your family? Watching the latest season of Drive to Survive? Taking good care? Keeping your feet on the ground?
I hope you have a wonderful long weekend. Take it all the way easy and stay safe!
💌What are you talking about, reading, watching, cooking, listening to lately? Let me know. I’ll read every letter sent and maybe even write a below the fold post about it.
“I destroy my enemies when I make them my friends.”
– Abraham Lincoln (16th President of the United States of America, lawyer and statesman)