Today’s Big Story
Amidst the rapidly evolving situation in Afghanistan, India is measuring its options, the biggest challenge being whether or not to recognize the Taliban government.
The decision will be tough, especially if Moscow and Beijing decide to acknowledge the Taliban government in some form. Experts say Islamabad is likely to officially accept the Taliban government, as it did in 1999.
📯 What’s Going On?
For many years India has supported the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan through military, financial and medical aid. This alliance is being reactivated by Afghanistan's Vice President - Amrullah Saleh (tweet above) - who has not left the country and is in talks with Ahmad Massoud. They are currently in Panjshir valley (an area that hasn't been occupied by the Taliban and is known for its anti-Taliban legacy). Together, they plan to build a resistance movement against the Taliban regime.
The Northern Alliance is actually Afghanistan's original resistance force which was also supported by the US. Now that the US is leaving, India needs to decide what its position vis-a-vis the Northern Alliance will be.
Should we support the resistance force or engage with the Taliban?
🔍 What Does this Mean?
Many on the left are of the view that India should have engaged with the Taliban earlier to secure its strategic interests, arguing that there is a difference between engagement and recognition.
Many on the right condemn the pro-talks lobby and advocate a tougher stance on the issue of engaging with the Taliban, citing concerns over legitimizing barbarism.
"India should have publicly engaged with the Taliban before they took over Afghanistan, former External Affairs Minister K. Natwar Singh said on Wednesday and favoured establishing diplomatic ties if they function as a responsible government going forward in the war-torn country. Mr. Singh, who was the foreign minister in UPA-I and also served as India's Ambassador to Pakistan besides holding other senior diplomatic positions, said India should adopt a "wait and watch" approach for the time being but noted that the Taliban that have taken over seems to be a "better lot" than those that ruled there two decades earlier" - The Hindu
"If you look at the statements given by the Ministry of External Affairs, it has stated that we are engaging with all stakeholders. We have participated in meetings where the Taliban was present. We have certain interests in Afghanistan and it is the responsibility of the government to ensure the safety of the Indian citizens and the safety of those in the Indian Embassy. India was short-sighted. We are not engaging with them to change their behavior or create a split between them and Pakistan. Right now, it is a situation in which we were left unprepared when the Americans began to withdraw rapidly. If we had engaged and come to our own conclusion on Taliban, then perhaps we could have taken a few steps to mitigate the adverse effect." - National Herald
"Why should India politically legitimise a force that is so beholden to Pakistan? In doing so, India will only serve Pakistan’s Afghan ambitions. The US wanted a face-saving exit of its forces from Afghanistan and decided to engage the Taliban directly. We are not looking for such an exit from Afghanistan. India is the only country Pakistan is targeting through the Taliban, not the US, Russia, China, Iran or Central Asian states. We have more reason therefore not to legitimise the Taliban politically by opening public channels with them out of a sense of foreboding and defeat." - News18
"If you reach out to the Taliban, you are signalling desperation and that desperation goes to our western neighbour (Pakistan). In Baghram, the Taliban released 5,000 terrorists. These were from Al-qaeda, ISIS and the Taliban. The Taliban is not just a terrorist group but a protectorate of terrorist groups..." - Republic World
💭 Why Should I Care?
No action is also an action
At the recent UNSC briefing, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar told reporters in New York that India is following the events in Afghanistan "very carefully" and the focus is on ensuring the security and safe return of Indian nationals who are still in the war-torn country. When he was asked how India views and deals with the Taliban leadership, he said it is still "early days", not offering direct comment on whether or not India was in touch with the Taliban.
Many experts are suggesting a "wait and watch" approach due to the constantly changing landscape in Afghanistan. While some believe we've lost out by not engaging with the Taliban earlier, others believe that many more options will open up in the near future as new developments emerge.
At this time, it seems most countries are largely viewing the chaos that is unfolding through nationalistic lenses and towards protecting their own strategic interests.
🙋Ask a Question
💡 Below the Fold
Just how powerful is this bastion of resistance against the Taliban?
Historically, the Panjshir province has never been conquered - neither by foreigners nor by Afghans. Currently, Panjshir is the last holdout against the Taliban.
Here’s a 4 minute video that provides more context on their leadership and goals.
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