Today’s Big Story
On February 20th, about 68% of the 21 million registered voters in Punjab cast their ballot in the 2022 state assembly elections which are being seen as a barometer of our Prime Minister and his party’s popularity ahead of general elections in 2024. Analysts believe that the results (to be announced on March 10) will reflect whether PM Modi was successfully able to neutralize the resentment of Sikh farmers by repealing the contentious farm laws.
📯 What’s Going On?
In many ways, Punjab saw its most crucial assembly elections in history. For the first time the state witnessed as many as 5 parties or coalitions contest its 117 assembly seats. In the run up, the state of Punjab went through major developments in its political context - starting from the year long farmers' agitation which also led to the dissolution of a decade long alliance between Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), an escalating power crisis due to severe coal shortages, the Congress party going through internal political battles leading to the ousting of ex-CM Captain Amarinder Singh and the induction of the state's first Dalit Chief Minister, Charanjit Singh Channi.
Moreover, some of these old parties are being challenged by the Aam Aadmi Party, which entered the state's political arena in 2017 and managed to win only 20 seats. However, this time around, there seems to be a wave of supporters willing to give the 'Delhi model' of governance a chance.
🔍 What Does this Mean?
Many on the left argue that there is a huge clamour for change in Punjab, signaling strong tailwinds for the Aam Aadmi Party given that the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal (previously aligned with the BJP) have failed to keep their promises to people despite being in power for decades.
Many on the right argue that the farmers' protest was a political conspiracy to malign Prime Minister Narendra Modi while expressing fear and anger over the security situation of the state, adding that up until recently (when the farm laws were repealed) even the country’s PM couldn't visit Punjab due to the protests.
"Across the three regions (Doaba, Malwa and Majha), voters talk of the AAP government’s achievements in Delhi — from the revamped school and hospital to subsidised power, and ask: “If it weren’t true, why would AAP have been voted back to power in Delhi?” For many, AAP’s perceived commitment to education and health infrastructure is more attractive than the AAP freebie. “We need jobs, not free atta and dal”, says Dharambir Singh, a driver in village Chehla in Samrala constituency. For the most part, there is a “change vote” in Punjab, made of both hope and despair, and the AAP is its only suitor." - The Indian Express
"From a bipolar contest that Punjab saw for a long time, this election, for the first time, witnesses a tough contest between five political parties in poll fray. This throws open the possibility of split votes and a likely hung assembly on March 10. The clamor for change has been palpable with AAP having an edge, especially in the Malwa region which accounts for the majority of seats." - Deccan Herald
"With Punjab going to polls on Sunday, Union Minister Jitendra Singh predicted that BJP will emerge victorious in the ongoing elections and exclaimed that the saffron party is the only prominent party in Punjab that can bring development. Lashing at his contemporaries, MoS Jitendra Singh averred that the incumbent Congress was facing internal rifts and the party was ‘very unstable.’ On the other hand, Aam Aadmi Party’s connections with the fringe elements in the border state have been exposed, therefore both the parties are incapable of providing people with a healthy government, MoS Singh opined." - Republic World
"PM Modi turned to the issue of electricity in his last election rally on Friday. "These people (AAP leaders) who are making promises (of providing free electricity), are not doing so for bringing power to your houses or for having your expenses saved. This is a path which would plunge Punjab into darkness in just a few years. They will not have the strength to run power houses," the PM said." - The Times of India
💭 Why Should I Care?
A Crowded Contest
With so many conflicting factors at play, here are a few big trends in the politics of Punjab organized by the primary party/coalition structures:
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)
Strength(s): Sweeping appeal due to Delhi governance model, clearest narrative on corruption and need for political change, anti-incumbency sentiment in Punjab is a norm
Key Risk(s): Yet to fully form or strengthen its own local networks of patronage especially the rural power system in which sarpanches play a key role
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)
Strength(s): Governed Punjab for 10 years from 2007 in alliance with the BJP, close linkages between sarpanches, party cadres and people at the local level, alliance with BSP may help secure dalit votes
Key Risk(s): Popularity has been dwindling since 2015 because of inaction on sacrilege cases, among other issues
Indian National Congress (INC)
Strength(s): only party that has a presence across the region and in both urban and rural pockets and in both Hindu and Sikh majority areas, support for CM Channi from some sections of the Dalit community
Key Risk(s): Great deal of infighting - first between ex-CM Captain Amarinder Singh and Navjot Singh Sindhu and then between Sidhu and CM Channi, talking points in election campaign are old issues such sacrilege, liquor mafia, corruption and unemployment even after 5 years in power
Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) & New Punjab Lok Congress (led by Captain Amarinder Singh)
Strength(s): Farm unions entering politics has given BJP a talking point, slight rise in support for BJP-leaning Hindus after farm laws were repealed
Key Risk(s): Absence of strong local leaders, general anti-BJP atmosphere due to the farm laws, trial and error approach towards Sikhs
Have questions or comments about today’s newsletter?
🙋Ask Away!
And in case you’re interested to learn more…
This 5-minute BBC news report on AAP’s chances in Punjab
✨ Below the Fold
I’m sorry to be the bearer of this shocking news (I was totally bamboozled when I found out), but it looks like the wasabi we think we’ve been eating all this time at Japanese restaurants in India isn’t Wasabi after all. Turns out most of the wasabi served outside of Japan is a mixture of horseradish, mustard and food coloring and a lot of other ridiculous ingredients like sorbitol (??) and tartrazine (what in the world?!).
Real wasabi tastes more herbal than the horseradish stuff. It's supposed to taste smoother, cleaner, more "plant-like" and much fresher. But even in Japan, the demand for real wasabi is so high that you'll often find some kind of horseradish mixture instead, with little, if any, real wasabi mixed in.
So now that you know you're probably eating fake wasabi and I’ve most definitely ruined your next visit to Izumi do you want to know what real wasabi looks like and where it comes from? Fun fact: it costs upwards of $250 for just a kilo.
💌What are you talking about, reading, watching, cooking, listening to lately? Let me know. I’ll read every letter sent and maybe even write a below the fold post about it.
"But home isn't where you land; home is where you launch. You can't pick your home any more than you can choose your family. In poker, you get five cards. Three of them you can swap out, but two are yours to keep: family and native land."
– Tayari Jones (author of novels including the NYT bestseller, An American Marriage)