🤖 The Thrills, TRPs and Precarious Predictions of Exit Polls
Here's what you need to know for today in 5:14 minutes
Today’s Big Story
Yesterday was a very important day in the political calendar; a day when 5 states (Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa) got their exit poll results and pretty much every news channel dedicated their prime-time shows to flashing and debating poll predictions.
📯 What’s Going On?
TLDR; the BJP is confident of a clear majority in Uttar Pradesh and Manipur, the AAP is confident of a clear majority in Punjab, while Uttarakhand and Goa remain too close to call.
In Goa, where 21 seats are needed to form a majority, the outcome is likely to be a hung house according to most exit polls. One complicating matter is that apart from the traditional rivals - the Congress and BJP, - several other political parties, like AAP and Trinamool Congress, have been in the fray this time around. The India Today-Axis MyIndia poll has given BJP 14-18; Congress+ 15-20; TMC-MGP 2-5 and others 0-4.
In Manipur, most exit polls show the BJP is likely to win 32-43 seats in a 60-member House. Although the India TV-Ground Zero Research exit poll has given BJP 23-28 seats, the outcome can be similar to 2017 when they won 21 seats and cobbled up a majority with regional parties to form the government.
In Punjab, it is almost certainly a sweep for the Aam Aadmi Party. Every single exit poll has put AAP ahead of Congress, and most have predicted it will gain a full majority in the 117-member Assembly
Uttarakhand remains too close to call. While most have shown the Congress to be ahead in the state – in the plains of which too the reverberations of the farmers’ agitation were felt rather strongly – some polls have shown the incumbent BJP, led by Pushkar Singh Dhami, slightly ahead. The overall range for the ruling party (BJP) is between 26-46 seats, and the Congress is 24-40 seats. In the 70-member house, any party would need to win 36 seats to form a majority. To use a bad pun, looks like the hill state is in for a cliffhanger.
In Uttar Pradesh, almost all exit polls including India Today-Axis and Today's Chanakya have predicted a clear majority for the BJP. There are 403 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh and any party needs to win 202 to get a majority. While Chanakya has predicted as many as 294 seats for BJP, on the conservative end, Times Now-Veto gave 225 seats to the BJP (still very much a majority).
🔍 What Does this Mean?
Many on the left are encouraged by the near-certain win for AAP in Punjab and favour exit polls that predict a photo-finish win for Congress in Uttarakhand.
Many on the right are encouraged by the top headline from these surveys that the Bharatiya Janata Party appears set to retain power in U.P. with a clear majority and emerge as the single-largest party near the halfway mark in Manipur.
"As the predictions for several exit polls for the 2022 assembly elections pour in, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is predicted to form the government in Punjab with the Congress emerging as the runners up in the single phase election held on 20 February. AAP seems to have gained heavily from a wave of anti-incumbency against the Congress but also the Shiromani Akali Dal — traditionally the key players in the state's politics. The party successfully set the poll agenda as issues of rising unemployment, dilapidated healthcare infrastructure during the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, education, and other civic issues resonated with voters on ground." - The Quint
"In Uttarakhand, both the Congress and the BJP were favoured by different exit polls to win the Assembly polls. The ABP News-CVoter forecast an edge for the Congress in Uttarakhand, giving the party 32-38 seats in the 70-member Assembly and the BJP 26-32 seats." - Firstpost
"As several exit polls on Monday predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be getting 211-277 seats in the 403-member UP assembly, leaders of Bharatiya Janata Party exuded confidence that the party will get a clear majority and retain the government in the state. Amit Malviya, who is the in-charge of BJP’s national information and technology department, took to Twitter and said, “BJP is winning UP (per exit polls). It would be for the first time since independence a CM would complete a full term and get re-elected. Also for the first time in 37 years, since 1985, BJP would be the only party to get re-elected. Irrespective of seats, it would be phenomenal." - News18
"Union Home Minister and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Amit Shah has claimed that the party will retain the power in the state. "The state has transformed from blockades, bandhs, violence, drugs to organic farming, medical institutions and more. PM Modi and our CM of Manipur have worked hard to end the differences between hills and valleys," he said on Saturday. According to the exit poll results for the Manipur Assembly elections, BJP is projected to secure a majority and emerge as the largest party in the state." - Times Now
💭 Why Should I Care?
An Astrologer’s Day at the Science Fair
To be honest, pollsters and partnering media channels are facing quite the credibility crisis, and not just in India. Given the lack of clarity on methodology, exit polls have more often than not turned out wrong in the past. Silence around the methodology adopted to calculate vote shares — and to convert vote shares into seat shares — has existed for a long time.
Although polling companies work hard to collect data for exit polls (they go to the field, ask questions etc.) there are some persistent reasons for the inaccuracy of exit polls ranging from voters simply lying about who they actually voted for, the absence of random and representative sampling and biases in questioning. So when polling companies extrapolate their data to predict seats, it's usually where the cookie crumbles. Even if you talk to 1,000 people to get estimates for which way 1 seat will go, it may still be a far cry from reality because in states like UP, up to 3 million voters can end up determining the outcome of that one seat.
Have questions or comments about today’s newsletter?
🙋Ask Away!
And in case you’re interested to learn more…
This 51-minute podcast from The Quint where the show hosts have a live conversation about exit poll results as they trickled in
✨ Below the Fold
Well, well, well, the fifth and final season of the Peabody award-winning show Better Things just premiered on Hotstar and I’m on cloud 9 because it’s high up in my ‘most anticipated’ list for 2022. Pamela Adlon is my personal hero and this show is honestly the most natural show that there is. It really seems like nothing is written, everything just flows - the directing, acting, writing, just all of it - it’s pretty magical.
I was hesitant to share yet another show recommendation, lest you think this is some TV guide you didn’t even subscribe to. But this newsletter has always been an honest in-real-time reflection of my media diet and the reality is…I’m just watching Better Things re-runs in my free time.
Here’s one of my favourite scenes from the show and maybe it can be your litmus test for whether or not you want to watch it. Also because I feel sometimes trailers aren’t the best way to entice an audience, you know?
💌What are you talking about, reading, watching, cooking, listening to lately? Let me know. I’ll read every letter sent and maybe even write a below the fold post about it.
“Everyone shines, given the right lighting.”
– Susan Cain (an American writer and lecturer)