Today’s Big Story
The second phase of Assembly Elections in Uttar Pradesh is complete and the third phase will begin on Sunday, February 20th.
With 5 more phases to go, politicians from across party spectra are wooing voters amidst an intensely polarized atmosphere.
Yesterday, a BJP Leader contesting against the Samajwadi Party alleged an attack by SP goons in the Rahmatullahpur village of Karhal. Meanwhile, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) general secretary Sitaram Yechury lashed out at Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, alleging that the BJP is raising the hijab issue in elections to divert attention from issues like unemployment, inflation and starvation.
📯 What’s Going On?
Uttar Pradesh is home to about a sixth of India’s population, about 24 crore, and is one of the youngest states in the country (the median age was 20 in 2016). To drive these stats home, people often say that this state alone has a population larger than entire countries, like Brazil.
An overwhelming majority of our country's prime ministers, including the current PM, have been elected from constituencies in UP. The state sends 80 representatives to India’s 543-member parliament — more than twice as many as any other, barring Maharashtra. So, how UP residents vote matters a lot more than any other variable in Indian politics.
Although there has been a spike in hate speech targeting religious minorities, according to media reports, the state's struggling economy, law and order issues and unemployment are shaping much of the election debate on ground.
It appears UP is facing a crisis of jobs. In the recent past, young people and students have taken to the streets to protest rising unemployment. Less than a month ago, the railway ministry suspended entrance exams in UP and Bihar, where protests staged by job aspirants turned violent.
🔍 What Does this Mean?
Many on the left argue that even though staggeringly high levels of unemployment has been a pressing problem in Uttar Pradesh, protests tend to be sporadic and it is fairly easy for political leaders to divert people’s attention from bread-and-butter issues to other causes.
Many on the right argue that the current BJP-led government of Uttar Pradesh has met their promise of creating more jobs these past 5 years, promised to double the number of women's vacancies and stated that more jobs will come through infrastructural development like new airports.
"When anger or despair do arise in this brave new world, they are usually quickly scrolled away and quietened by hours on Instagram reels. Afternoons are for charging phone batteries up to 100 per cent, evenings are for playing digital games in sportsgrounds, and nights are for climbing rooftops to catch the network signal. This is when mobile data is the cheapest and fastest, and so it’s the perfect time to plunge into the three Ps: political propaganda, pornography, and potboilers like the action-drama Pushpa, which is currently all the rage. This is how many among Uttar Pradesh’s “generation nowhere”, a term that scholar Craig Jeffrey has used to describe educated, unemployed youth in India, spend their days." - The Print
"The challenge keeps getting tougher — India needs to create 90 million non-farm jobs between 2023 and 2030, to ensure our demographic surplus is absorbed. Even getting a degree is no guarantee for a job — 9 million of 55 million graduate degree holders were unemployed in 2019. We seem to be wasting our nation’s demographic potential — our youth stay unemployed for longer, desperately awaiting a chance to crack a government job. And if they don’t, then the only option is to get an informal job as a labourer." - The Indian Express
"Modi’s original pitch to India’s populous hinterland when he began his run for prime minister almost a decade ago was that he would turn India’s poorest provinces into Gujarat, the prosperous coastal state he had ruled for three terms. And indeed, the BJP government has put a lot of effort into upgrading UP’s highways and other infrastructure, hoping as in Gujarat to attract companies to set up factories in the state. If re-elected, the party promises to intensify that effort, building six new metros, five new express highways, two new international airports and 25 new bus terminals." - The Economic Times
"In an exclusive interview to Shashi Shekhar, Editor-in-chief of Hindustan Times' Hindi-language sister publication Hindustan, Yogi Adityanath said that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government changed the perception of the state. As the conversation moved towards providing employment to Uttar Pradesh’s youth, the chief minister said that the state’s unemployment rate was 18 per cent when SP was in power and has now come down to 4.9 per cent. “We gave government job to 5 lakh young people, 1.61 crore youth got private jobs and assistance in jobs,” said Adityanath." - Hindustan Times
💭 Why Should I Care?
Mystery Math
The current government of UP says they have more than met their promise of jobs. In 2017, the BJP manifesto for the Assembly Elections stated they would create 70 lakh jobs. Now, the state government has estimated that 3.28 crore jobs were generated in the MSME sector over the past five years. This is a staggering claim. It suggests the government has created about 5x more jobs than they set out to in their manifesto.
However, on ground reports from Kanpur - once known as the Manchester of the East - cast reasonable doubt on this data. Kanpur used to be an industrial textile-manufacturing town, full of industrial parks, factories and warehouses but most small business owners report a decline in revenues, a sharp rise in input costs, owing to which many have had to lay off as much as 25% of their staff.
Moreover, the UP State Government has a job portal which matches job seekers with employers. Currently on the portal, there are over 41 lakh job seekers for only 51 vacancies, which paints a different picture.
Indeed, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), UP’s unemployment rate in January 2022 was about 3 per cent which at first glance appears low. However, as the CMIE itself notes, unemployment rate “is not India’s most important labour market indicator” because it only points towards how many working-age people want to be employed but are not. The labour force participation rate (LFPR) is a stronger indicator because it tells you what % of the population above age 15 is either employed or is actively seeking jobs. For UP, the LFPR has declined from over 45 per cent in the first half of 2016 to around 34 per cent at the end of 2021, which means many people have dropped out of the labour force, for reasons that may include migration to other states as well as just not looking for jobs any longer.
Voters can be convinced China is defeated, but how do you convince the jobless they’re earning?
Have questions or comments about today’s newsletter?
🙋Ask Away!
And in case you’re interested to learn more…
This 45-minute video report from NDTV shines light on UP’s Unemployment Vs Law And Order Debate, bringing in voices from the people of Kanpur
✨ Below the Fold
If you randomly asked me to tell you a story, I would likely regale you with tales from ancient Greek mythology. Although there are so many reasons to be fascinated by ancient Greek civilization - how they came to define so many schools of philosophy, how they built some of the most spectacular architectural buildings and temples, and how they possessed such advanced knowledge of geometry - most of my fascination comes from their folklore.
Over 2000 years later, there are a myriad of themes, emotions and motivations that are entirely relatable. For starters, Greek heroes were not perfect nor were they entirely good. All ‘hero’ meant in Greece is that you were half god. And there were so many amazingly powerful goddesses like Athena, Artemis, Aphrodite and Persephone who comprised the Greek definition of hero. But at the same time, most Greek gods and goddesses were just as messed up as all of us are. Their story lines are full of drama, love, heartbreak, renewal and complex characters. This is probably why so many Greek stories are retold so many times, and in so many ways. Orpheus and Eurydice’s tragedy is my favourite story of all time.
There’s a Mythic channel on Ted-Ed that animates myths from around the world in the most insightful and entertaining ways. All under 6 minutes. This week’s special is the myth of Narcissus and Echo.
💌What are you talking about, reading, watching, cooking, listening to lately? Let me know. I’ll read every letter sent and maybe even write a below the fold post about it.
“Where there is love and inspiration, I don’t think you can go wrong.”
– Ella Fitzgerald (an American jazz singer)